US Midterm Elections 2026: The End of the Trump Era?

A Referendum on Trump’s Record

The US congressional elections, commonly known as the midterms, held on November 3 2026, marked a significant political turning point. Midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s term, when voters elect a new House of Representatives and approximately one-third of the Senate, making them something of a referendum on the incumbent president’s performance. The Democratic Party succeeded in taking control of both chambers of Congress, depriving the Republican Party of one of the key institutional advantages it enjoyed during the first two years of Donald Trump’s second term. The result represents a major setback for a president who, just two years ago, made his return to the White House promising to make America great again. This time, however, voters sent a different message: the political support Trump secured in 2024 was not unconditional, and his policies no longer commanded the same level of public confidence. Opinion polls conducted ahead of the elections had already pointed in this direction. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, just 32% of Americans approved of his job performance, putting his approval rating close to the lowest level recorded during his two presidential terms. Trump therefore entered the midterm election campaign with particularly low levels of public support, which proved to be a significant liability for Republican candidates.

Such an outcome is hardly surprising, given that voters often use midterm elections to express their level of satisfaction with the policies of the incumbent administration. The scale of the Republican defeat, however, points to something beyond the usual voter dissatisfaction with the party in power. Democrats secured victories even in states that had until recently been considered safe Republican strongholds. In the Senate, Democrats flipped seven seats previously held by Republicans, winning in Kansas, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, North Carolina and South Carolina. The victory in Kansas is particularly noteworthy, as the state had not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. The result in South Carolina is equally significant, given that Trump carried the state by a margin of almost 18 percentage points in 2024. The elections also produced several historic firsts. Abdul El-Sayed became the first Muslim ever elected to the US Senate, while his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, fell short of securing a Senate seat for the second time. Meanwhile, Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota became the first woman of Native American heritage elected to the Senate, while Chris Pappas of New Hampshire became the first openly gay man to win a seat in the chamber. Taken together with the historic victories of women and members of minority communities in gubernatorial races, these results also point to broader changes in the composition of political representation in the United States.

A similar trend emerged in the House of Representatives, where Democrats gained more than twenty additional seats. Among the most notable upsets were Iowa, where they won three of the state’s four congressional districts; Indiana, where an incumbent Republican representative lost in a district Trump had carried by nearly 17 percentage points; as well as Texas and New Hampshire.

It is worth noting that House elections are not contests for entire states, but rather for individual congressional districts. Nevertheless, Democratic victories in traditionally conservative areas suggest that dissatisfaction with the Republican administration has spread well beyond the party’s usual electoral strongholds. According to the Associated Press (AP), as of November 5, winners had been declared in 384 of the 435 congressional districts, with Democrats securing 238 seats and Republicans 146. Vote counting is still underway in the remaining 51 districts, meaning that the final balance of power has yet to be established. The question of which party will control the House, however, has already been settled, as Democrats have surpassed the 218 seats required for a majority. The only remaining question is how large that majority will ultimately be and whether the final results will confirm the scale of their electoral success.

What Explains This Outcome?

One of the most important factors was undoubtedly the state of the economy. Despite Trump’s promises of an economic recovery and a lower cost of living, many Americans remain dissatisfied with the prices of everyday goods and the prevailing economic uncertainty. His protectionist trade policy, centered on the introduction of tariffs, has further fueled concerns about rising prices. These grievances were compounded by dissatisfaction with the war with Iran, which placed an additional strain on the US economy and heightened the sense of uncertainty. The Democratic campaign succeeded in bringing these issues to the forefront, while Republicans devoted much of their attention to cultural and identity-based divisions, including questions of gender identity and social values.

Trump’s own involvement in the campaign also played an important role. In the final weeks before the election, the president actively campaigned on behalf of Republican candidates, urging voters to act as though he himself were on the ballot. However, several of his endorsements proved unsuccessful. The defeats of candidates he had personally backed in Texas and South Carolina, along with the loss of long-serving Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine, suggest that presidential endorsement was not necessarily an electoral asset. In other words, Trump’s political persona, which had been one of the key factors behind the Republican victory in 2024, may this time have become one of the reasons for the party’s electoral defeat.

What Will Change?

Democratic control of Congress will significantly alter the political landscape in Washington during the remaining two years of Trump’s term. A Democratic majority in the House of Representatives will be able to launch congressional investigations and step up oversight of the administration, while control of the Senate will allow Democrats to block certain presidential nominations and influence future judicial appointments. At the same time, passing legislation and implementing parts of Trump’s political agenda will become considerably more difficult. Nevertheless, the Democratic majority will not have unlimited power. Trump retains the right to veto legislation passed by Congress, and Democrats lack the two-thirds majority in either chamber required to override a presidential veto. The president has already indicated that he is prepared to use this power, describing himself as a kind of “Mr. Veto”, which points to the possibility of frequent clashes between the White House and Congress. Instead of operating in a relatively favorable institutional environment, the president will face a Congress capable of providing a serious check on his power, while he himself will retain significant means of blocking Democratic initiatives.

Still, the Democratic victory should not automatically be viewed as proof that the party has found an answer to the Trump movement. Some voters may have been voting less in favor of the Democratic party, but more so in opposition of the Republican administration. How well Democrats live up to the trust they have been given, put forward a convincing platform, and overcome their own internal divisions will be among the key factors heading into the 2028 presidential election.

At the same time, the election results raise questions about the future of the Republican Party in the post-Trump era. Trump’s Vice President, JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who have long stood out as the two most serious potential contenders for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028 and have both performed well in polls of Republican voters, will find it difficult to distance themselves from the record and policies of the current administration. If voter dissatisfaction persists, it could weaken their starting positions in the race for the Republican nomination and fuel an internal debate over whether the party should continue along its current political path or seek a different candidate.

For Trump, the result is a warning that the political capital gained through his return to the White House can be depleted relatively quickly. His “America First” agenda and promise to transform American society along conservative lines have not disappeared, but from now on they will face considerably stronger institutional resistance. The elections have shown that control of the White House does not guarantee lasting support from American voters. The next two years will reveal not only how far Trump is willing or able to adapt his policies to the new political circumstances, but also what political direction the Republican Party will choose as it looks beyond his presidency.