InvigoratEU Long Policy Report on Turkey’s Ambitions and Leverage

Between Minarets and Megaprojects: Turkey’s Influence Across EU Candidate Countries

This report examines Turkey’s influence in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) and the Eastern Trio (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) over the past decade, focusing on political, economic, and societal dimensions. Using the InvigoratEU External Influence Index—an empirical tool specifically designed for this study—it systematically measures and compares Turkish leverage across nine EU candidate and partner countries. The Index captures shifts from 2013 to 2023, offering a cross-country and longitudinal analysis of how Ankara has engaged with the region and how these countries have responded. The findings show that Turkey’s influence is neither uniformly benign nor overtly antagonistic, but shaped by local receptivity, institutional interest, and historical or cultural proximity. Unlike coercive actors, Turkey typically avoids direct confrontation with the EU, opting instead for relational diplomacy, targeted investments, and long-term societal engagement. Political influence has grown modestly, driven by high-level visits, security cooperation, and elite alignment—especially in Kosovo, Ukraine, and North Macedonia. Economic influence has expanded more steadily, fuelled by concessional loans, preferential trade agreements, and infrastructure projects. However, macroeconomic instability in Turkey casts doubt on the long-term sustainability of this outreach. Societal influence emerges as the most persistent and embedded dimension. Through cultural diplomacy, religious networks, educational initiatives, and media presence—including popular Turkish TV series—Turkey has cultivated durable societal linkages, particularly in Muslim-majority areas of the Western Balkans. While this influence is less pronounced in the Eastern Trio, it plays a growing role in public perceptions. These trends suggest that Turkey’s influence is best understood as adaptive and opportunistic rather than expansionist or ideological. It advances where EU presence is weak, particularly at the local level, and where Turkey can act quickly and visibly.

Importantly, Turkish influence should not be seen as inherently malign. As a NATO member, Ankara has often supported Euro-Atlantic security priorities—from contributing troops to regional missions to backing collective defence measures in the Black Sea—and in some cases has complemented rather than competed with EU objectives. Yet the line between constructive engagement and problematic interference can be thin, especially when Turkey externalises its domestic political agenda through pressure on partner governments.

For the EU, this calls for a strategic response that reinforces its credibility, reclaims societal space, and avoids unnecessary antagonism with Ankara – while remaining alert to cases where Turkish influence can undermine democratic resilience in EU candidate countries. The Union’s response should therefore be less about constraining Turkey and more about investing in its own appeal and effectiveness. This means ensuring timely delivery of promised financial and infrastructure projects, making EU engagement more visible on the ground, and working directly with municipalities, universities, and civil society to generate bottom-up legitimacy. It also requires pragmatic coordination with Ankara in areas of shared concern, such as migration management or infrastructure security, while safeguarding conditionality whenever Turkish pressure risks undermining rule-of-law or human rights commitments in partner states. Preventing asymmetric dependencies will be equally important: the EU must support investment screening and provide credible alternatives through instruments like the EIB and EBRD. Finally, reclaiming the soft-power edge will demand more robust cultural and educational programmes, investment in regional media, and clear communication of the EU’s core values – secularism, inclusivity, and democratic governance –as the non-negotiable foundations of the European project. Taken together, these measures would allow the EU to channel Turkey’s presence into a more complementary direction, while ensuring that European norms and institutions remain the decisive reference point for countries on the path to accession.