Was kostet uns der Balkan?

As negotiations on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the 2028–2034 period are now underway, an informed and realistic assessment of the budgetary implications of accession is urgently needed. With momentum for enlargement revitalised in the wake of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, expectations are growing that the upcoming MFF will translate this renewed political commitment into concrete financial planning—specifically, by reserving funding for enlargement expected to take place during the next budget cycle.

Despite rising expectations surrounding enlargement, policymakers are still left without a complete picture of its implications. Existing analyses often fall short of providing a concrete, up-to-date assessment of the costs associated with enlargement. This project aims to fill that gap by delivering a detailed, data-driven, and region-wide estimate of the fiscal impact of Western Balkan accession.

It will thus provide: (1) a consolidated estimate of the total cost of integrating the Western Balkans into the EU; (2) country-level projections of expected financial allocations from the EU budget for each future member state; (3) a breakdown of projected EU budget allocations per each heading of the EU’s MFF; (4) estimates of the financial contributions the Western Balkan countries are expected to make to the EU budget upon acquiring membership; and (5) a calculation of the annual cost per capita for EU citizens. These outputs will enable EU and German decision-makers to prepare for the financial implications of enlargement with greater clarity and precision.

Implemented: between June and December 2025.

Contact person: Strahinja Subotić, Programme Manager and Senior Researcher, strahinja.subotic@cep.org.rs