The low rates of natural population growth combined with emigration surpassing immigration pose challenges for the domestic labour market and the overall economy. While Serbia has been grappling with economic emigrations since the 1960s, recent times have witnessed new patterns in line with global trends: among the more educated population, there are so-called circular migrations, involving repeated legal migrations of the same individual between two or more countries. Simultaneously, thanks to new technologies, it is possible to work from Serbia for a foreign employer, which has a positive impact on the return of Serbian citizens to their country of origin.

The Economic Migration Strategy of the Republic of Serbia for the period 2021–2027 was adopted in 2020, along with its accompanying Action Plan. This is the first public document that addresses this area and attempts to provide state measures aimed at slowing down emigration and attracting returnees. The adoption of this strategy inspired our project, and one of our initial goals was to assess the Action Plan of the Strategy. The Assessment of the Action Plan was published at the midpoint of its implementation cycle so that its findings could be utilized in the preparation of a new plan. Its aim was to systematically analyze the Action Plan for the implementation of the Economic Migration Strategy and, based on that analysis, objectively assess, and inform policymakers and decision-makers about the results achieved in the ongoing implementation of the Strategy. Additionally, it aimed to provide recommendations for potential corrective measures going
forward.

The second goal of the project was to familiarize ourselves with the comparative experiences of European countries regarding economic migrations. Specifically, this involved examining the legislative framework regulating this area, assessing whether it is more advanced compared to the domestic one, and exploring how roles in addressing these issues are distributed among the state, civil sector, and other stakeholders (private sector, academic community, media), and investigating the measures implemented by the state to encourage the return of emigrants to their country of origin.

Comparative experiences demonstrate that the existence of organizations dedicated to supporting returnees, considering aspects such as their return, economic activity in their home country, as well as scientific and professional careers, significantly influences migration decisions. Therefore, a segment of our project was focused on assessing the support available to circular migrants through programs on the Returning Point and eGovernment portals. Additionally, our aim was to provide recommendations suggesting directions for enhancing existing services or establishing new ones for circular migrants. This aspect of the project addressed the question of to what extent these two portals encourage and facilitate the process of circular migrations through the various forms of support they offer.

One of the project’s objectives was also to engage the local level in the discourse on circular migrations. By enhancing the capabilities of several civil society organizations chosen for their ability to represent diverse regions in our country, we empowered local stakeholders to address the issue of economic migration more actively. The ultimate goal is for the selected civil society organizations to evolve into Regional Centers of Excellence for economic migrations in the future. This transformation would enable them to actively participate in constructive dialogues on migration-related public policies and contribute to the development of optimal solutions for the regions they represent.

Članak Recommendations for improving the circular migration management process se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

This project is financed with the contribution of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Italian Republic. The content of this document represents the views of its authors and in no way represents the position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

Functioning of democratic institutions (FoDI) is an inseparable part of country reports produced by the European Commission (EC, Commission) each year. At the same time, this is the sole part of the report that does not have an assessment of the level of preparedness and progress. Since 33 negotiating chapters and two sub-areas within the Fundamentals cluster, namely Economic Criteria and the Public Administration Reform (PAR), are regularly assessed by the Commission for all (potential) candidate countries, FoDI deserved the same treatment.

This infographic serves as a visual roadmap for using third-party indicators for quantifying the functioning of democratic institutions in the WB. It outlines the ratings for four categories (‘Elections’, ‘Parliament’, ‘Governance’, and ‘Civil society’), as well as an overall score for FoDI across six countries, using mixed approach model.

For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the following publication.

Članak Using Third-Party Indicators for Quantifying the Functioning of Democratic Institutions in the WB se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

In the wake of Russian aggression against Ukraine, the intricate game of geopolitical considerations has prompted the EU to recalibrate its approach to enlargement. This recalibration has not gone unnoticed in the Western Balkans and former Eastern Partnership countries, where anticipation hangs in the air. Expectations are large, yet the undeniable truth lingers: the EU must reform its institutional groundwork for enlargement to materialise.

Against this backdrop, Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, has cast a hopeful gaze towards 2030 as a target date when the EU should complete its internal reforms to become enlargement-ready. Simultaneously, candidate and potential candidate countries are urged to amplify their reform efforts. Brussels remains resolute – any progression towards membership will be merit-based, with an unwavering commitment to the rule of law. As the anticipation builds, all eyes turn to the 2023 Enlargement Package so as to see what the Commission has to say about the progress of respective countries, while also accounting for the Commission’s new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.

In that context, CEP organised a webinar titled ‘Discussing the 2023 Enlargement Package and the Functioning of Democratic Institutions in the Western Balkans,’ inviting its regional partners from the Think for Europe Network (TEN) to participate. The event featured the participation of the Ambassador of Italy to Serbia, H.E. Luca Gori, as well as Mr Ger Jan Koopman, the Director-General for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations. The event had two primary objectives. Firstly, it served as a platform to delve into the EU’s 2023 Enlargement Package and the current state of the accession process in the Western Balkans. Esteemed experts from each WB country shared their insights and perspectives, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of the region’s path forward. Secondly, the webinar presented the results of CEP’s research, which scrutinised the Commission’s methodology for evaluating the Functioning of Democratic Institutions (FoDI) across the region. This research and webinar were made possible with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Italy.

Članak Unpacking the 2023 Enlargement Package: A Wake-up Call for the Western Balkans se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

This project is financed with the contribution of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Italian Republic. The content of this document represents the views of its authors and in no way represents the position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

Functioning of democratic institutions (FoDI) is an inseparable part of country reports produced by the European Commission (EC, Commission) each year. At the same time, this is the sole part of the report that does not have an assessment of the level of preparedness and progress. Since 33 negotiating chapters and two sub-areas within the Fundamentals cluster, namely Economic Criteria and the Public Administration Reform (PAR), are regularly assessed by the Commission for all (potential) candidate countries, FoDI deserved the same treatment.

Moreover, having in mind the revised enlargement methodology with enhanced focus on the Fundamentals, the necessity for providing a clear assessment of the state of play in this area appears as a logical step forward if the aim is to elevate the overall impact of the mentioned reports on the reform processes in the Western Balkan region. Hence, this paper offers thorough guidance for the EC to apply quantification to the FoDI area, using a reliable approach (referred to as ‘mixed approach’ throughout the paper).  

The paper is organised in five distinct chapters. In the first part, it argues why quantification is important and necessary for the EU accession process. In the second chapter, a methodology for quantifying FoDI is developed with detailed step-by-step explanations. Afterwards, in the third section, the quantification methodology is applied to six Western Balkan countries and ratings for four categories (‘Elections’, ‘Parliament’, ‘Governance’, and ‘Civil society’) are calculated and presented. The Mixed approach model for quantifying FoDI is developed in the same chapter by calculating an overall score for FoDI across six countries. The same chapter also presents and discusses the final FoDI results based on the applied methodology. Lastly, quantification is observed in the context of the Model of staged accession as part of its merit-based approach towards enlargement.

Članak Quantifying the Functioning of Democratic Institutions: Developing a Reliable Model for the Western Balkans se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

At the 15th BRICS summit in August 2023, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) announced plans to expand their membership by inviting six nations to join as official members. This move means that when Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, join the bloc with full membership in January 2024, BRICS will represent about 46.5% of the global population and about a third of the global GDP.

The expansion will likely aid BRICS’ legitimacy as a representative and inclusive institution. However, it also makes an organisation that has already been criticised for being a varied, miscellaneous collection of member-states, even more heterogeneous, adding new regional dynamics, political governance structures, development stages, and economic specialisations to the mix. The expansion thus has considerable implications for the governance, efficacy, and character of BRICS as an international institution.

Meanwhile, scholars and analysts have situated the existence of BRICS in the context of a global political power contest between Russia, China, and the US. This struggle takes place within a Western-led world order that many developing countries also perceive as institutionally excluding the voices and interests of the global South, particularly in the sphere of economic development. The expansion of BRICS, and the subsequent effects it has on the organisation’s competence, is, therefore, a significant development in international politics, even if it is not the watershed for a multipolar world order that some have been hoping for.

This paper aims to track the international context behind the BRICS challenge to Western organisations, discuss the potential geopolitical consequences of a BRICS expansion in the context of a Russian power play, and consider the implications for Serbia’s global positioning.

Članak Uncharted Waters: The BRICS Expansion and Implications se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Članak Preparation and progress of Serbia towards EU membership 2023 se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Circular migration represents an innovative response to the challenges of demographic decline and population outflow in Serbia. This migration model allows the country to harness the benefits of migration, transfer knowledge and capital from abroad, thus contributing to its economic development.

However, circular migrants face specific challenges due to frequent changes in their place of residence, requiring tailored services and support. Managing circular migration requires careful consideration to meet their needs and create favourable conditions for their return with new skills and experiences, thus strengthening Serbia’s competitive advantages in the global market. Based on these assumptions, this policy brief provides recommendations for enhancing support for circular migrants, thereby contributing to Serbia’s economic and social development. The brief analyses the significance and effectiveness of two key platforms – the eGovernment portal and the Returning Point – in supporting circular migrants and returnees to Serbia. Through a detailed qualitative and quantitative analysis, challenges and potential solutions related to the use of these portals are explored. Additionally, user satisfaction is considered, their specific needs are examined, and potential improvements are proposed

Članak Circular Migration: Does Serbia Have a Solution? se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

This project is financed with the contribution of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Italian Republic. The content of this document represents the views of its authors and in no way represents the position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

The functioning of democratic institutions represents one of the key prerequisites for a country to join the EU. This is emphasised by the fact that this area has been included in the fundamentals chapter in the revised enlargement methodology of the EU, alongside the most important chapters in negotiations such as rule of law, freedom of media, fight against corruption and organised crime, public procurement, economic criteria and public administration reform.

As the Western Balkans continue to grapple with the “elements of state capture”, the Commission’s role in guiding these countries to overcome their endemic issues becomes of paramount importance. It is imperative for the Commission to elevate its efforts and embrace the role of mentorship, becoming the true driving force behind the enlargement process. This need is exacerbated by the shifting geopolitical dynamics that demand a proactive stance. Maintaining the ‘old school’ approach to country reports, which implies the same scope and depth of analysis regardless of the prioritisation of the Fundamentals in the 2020 Revised Enlargement Methodology, is bound to fail in producing the desired results. It is, therefore, high time that the Commission reconsiders its approach to its country reports, particularly in the FoDI subarea.

This infographic serves as a visual roadmap for enhancing the assessment of democratic institutions in the WB6 region. It outlines key areas where improvements can be made to provide a more comprehensive and accurate evaluation of democracy in these countries.

For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the following publication.

Članak The Commission’s Assessment of the Functioning of Democratic Institutions: Adding the Missing Puzzle Pieces se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

The Template on Staged Accession to the EU proposed in 2021 that funding for reforms and socio-economic development should substantially grow as (potential) candidate states improve their preparedness for membership, assessed annually by the European Commission. This proposal aims at incentivising politically sensitive reforms in the accession process while helping to gradually prepare beneficiaries for assuming membership obligations and opportunities in a gradual way.

The setting of the current third edition of the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA) appears to be neither financially sufficient nor designed for such a purpose. The recent announcement of a four-pil-lar growth plan for the Western Balkans by the Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which includes a decision to increase pre-accession assistance, provides a timely opportunity to reflect on the effectiveness of IPA III and design appropriate measures to improve it. The rationale behind the funding proposal in the Template is threefold.

Firstly, if the candidates are to catch up with the EU proper in terms of socio-economic development, they need much higher levels of funding as early as possible in the accession process. Secondly, the countries need to start preparing for the absorption of the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) once they become members, to avoid a scenario in which they absorb small portions of available funds in the first years of membership due to lack of capacity. Thirdly, more substantial financial support for socio-economic development can create more public awareness and support for EU accession, as well as a stronger incentive for governments in the region to press on with the ambitious reform agenda.

As the original Template did not include details regarding the funding instruments and conditions for access to increased funding, this paper probes deeper into these issues and proposes different policy options for the funding facet of the staged accession model. The paper starts with an analysis of the present IPA III, from the perspective of preparation of its beneficiaries for EU membership and especially the use of ESIF, providing an analytical basis for the Staged accession funding model. In section III, it proceeds to a discussion of several policy options for introducing additional funding as interim incentives and benefits during the accession process. It also lays out in significant detail the preferred option, which includes a proposal for a fully reformed IPA IV, and assesses its advantages and disadvantages. In sections IV and V, the paper discusses proposals for conditioning and reversibility mechanisms as well as for the development of absorption capacities among candidates. It concludes by drawing attention to the major prerequisites that will decide if a new, staged approach to the provision of pre-accession assistance will make it or break it.

Članak Reforming the EU’s pre-accession funding instrument se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

This project is financed with the contribution of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Italian Republic. The content of this document represents the views of its authors and in no way represents the position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

This paper is an integral component of a broader initiative aimed at enhancing the Commission’s assessments within the “Functioning of Democratic Institutions” (FoDI) subarea. It builds upon prior work identifying the inconsistencies present in the Commission’s reporting on the Western Balkans (WB6) while also proposing methods to quantify the findings by cross-analysing the most renowned international democracy indexes. This paper goes further, as its primary objective is to identify and advocate for the introduction and integration of additional essential policy elements into the Commission’s reporting within the FoDI domain. Doing so would result in the deepening and expansion of the Commission’s reporting and assessment scope, thus providing a platform for a more detailed, precise, and realistic evaluation of the state of affairs on the ground. Such a comprehensive and in-depth examination is essential for fostering a deeper understanding of the challenges, strengths, and dynamics of democratic institutions within the assessed region, but also as a contribution towards increasing the overall credibility of the Commission’s reports.

Članak Deepening and Expanding the Scope of the Commission’s Reporting of Developments in the “Functioning of Democratic Institutions” in WB6 se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Public procurement, as a process through which government agencies acquire goods and services from external sources, represents one of the essential areas in Serbia’s EU accession process, covered by Chapter 5. The importance of this chapter was heightened in 2020 with the introduction of the Revised Enlargement Methodology.

The inclusion of public procurement as an integral component of the Fundamentals cluster was a pivotal development, aligning it with other indispensable domains such as the rule of law, democratic institutions, public administration reforms, economic criteria, and more. Upon entering the EU, Serbian companies will gain the valuable right to participate in every public procurement opportunity across the EU alongside businesses from member states. Therefore, Serbia’s entire public procurement system, post-accession, must be carefully designed as a level-playing field, ensuring equal opportunities for all potential bidders from across the EU.

This proactive preparation will not only facilitate the EU accession process but also equip Serbian companies to access the significantly larger public procurement market within the EU. Additionally, public procurement holds a central position in managing EU Structural Funds because each country independently conducts procurements through these funds. This strategic approach plays a pivotal role in fostering economic growth and enhancing competitiveness during and after the accession process. European Commission, 2020, Enhancing the accession process – A credible EU perspective for the Western Balkans September 2023.

Although the EU’s endeavour aimed to underscore the paramount importance of fulfilling the public procurement benchmarks, it failed to incite substantive changes on the ground. Numerous challenges persist and continue to exert adverse effects on the functioning of the state. The vulnerability of public procurement in Serbia to irregularities stems from several key issues. A limited number of bidders and a substantial proportion of single- bid procurements indicate restricted competition, resulting in higher prices and diminished value for money. Furthermore, prioritising price criteria over striking a balance between price and quality considerations can undermine the overall quality and effectiveness of the acquired goods and services. Another critical concern is the excessive reliance on exemptions, which can potentially lead to reduced competition and transparency. These problems underscore the urgency of addressing challenges within the public procurement system. Ensuring transparency and integrity of public procurement is vital to preclude any misuse or mismanagement of public funds and, in turn, deliver high-quality services that genuinely serve the needs of citizens.

This is particularly important as a well-functioning public procurement system can be a driving force behind an efficient public sector, building trust, and upholding the principles of accountability and fairness. By analysing the lack of competition and excessive use of exemptions within Serbia’s public procurement system, this paper seeks to shed light on critical areas for improvement and pave the way for crucial reforms that will enhance the efficiency and integrity of the public procurement processes in Serbia, benefitting both the government and its citizens alike.

Članak Unveiling Challenges in Serbian Public Procurement se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

The 2022 Russian aggression against Ukraine has triggered the most substantial migration surge across Europe since World War II. Amid the millions of Ukrainians seeking refuge within the European Union’s borders from the war, Serbia, as an EU candidate country, is grappling with a significant influx of Russian expatriates, who are escaping political oppression and the looming spectre of conscription in their homeland.

Remarkably, as Turkey increasingly began to reject Russian residence permit applications, Serbia rose to prominence among the top three preferences for Russian migrants. Inspired by strong historical ties and memories of a past wave of White emigres seeking refuge after the Russian Empire’s downfall, Serbia has warmly embraced its new Russian emigrants, viewing this influx as an opportunity for a youthful, skilled workforce that can boost the economy and bridge demographic gaps.

Yet, beneath the surface of this generous front lies a compelling question: What rewards will Serbia reap in exchange for its hospitality beyond the prospect of escalated rent prices? In this analysis, the focus shifts to delving into the intricacies of Serbia’s recent arrival of Russian emigrants, scrutinising the potential challenges this dynamic presents for the nation’s future.

Članak Russian Migration Surge in Serbia se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.