Three additional findings further illuminate these dynamics. First, the credibility mechanism is most pronounced among citizens who are otherwise predisposed toward EU integration. Individuals with stronger liberal-democratic and cosmopolitan orientations perceive the gap between the EU’s values and interests more acutely, resulting in a sharper decline in their support. Second, government-aligned and opposition-aligned citizens process EU-related information through different frameworks. The credibility mechanism has a meaningful effect only among opposition supporters, citizens aligned with the student movement, and politically neutral respondents, whereas the attitudes of government supporters are shaped almost exclusively by economic expectations. Third, the student movement, which has elevated issues of democratic governance closely connected to the credibility concerns identified in this research, has emerged as the second strongest political force in Serbia, surpassing all formal opposition parties combined. Consequently, if the EU is perceived as credibly supporting democratic governance requirements, it could enter a potential political transition with an existing constituency inclined toward European integration.

These findings suggest several implications for future EU engagement. Since the credibility deficit is rooted in the EU’s actions rather than in communication failures, the Union should prioritise consistency between its stated values and its policies. Resources should be shifted away from communication campaigns and toward programmes that provide citizens with direct experience of EU standards. Economic engagement, as the most powerful source of support, should become more visible at the local and individual level and should be explicitly linked to reform conditionality in order to reinforce rather than weaken the credibility channel. Pro-European citizens should not be regarded as automatically supportive; their backing depends on tangible evidence of commitment to rule-of-law standards rather than values-based rhetoric. Furthermore, the divergence between government-aligned and opposition-aligned audiences implies that a single communication strategy cannot effectively address both groups: while the former respond primarily to concrete modernisation benefits, the latter seek evidence that financial engagement is contingent upon genuine reform. Finally, the accession process itself must regain credibility by appearing achievable. A clear and staged roadmap would help address both the credibility deficit and the widespread disengagement arising from doubts that accession will ever occur, particularly if the EU demonstrates willingness to support a membership target date proposed by Serbia once the country exhibits genuine political commitment and a credible trajectory of reform.

Članak Geopolitics and Values: In Tension or in Tandem? se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Članak Serbia and the European Union: Geopolitics and EU Values – in Tension or in Tandem? se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Članak What does the Western Balkans cost me? se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

1. Ana Milinković, Mapping Platform Work in Serbia: Background Paper, (Europeum, 2025), https://cep.org.rs/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/SERBIA.pdf.

Članak Obstacles and Opportunities for Implementing the Platform Work Directive: Focus on Work Classification and the Presumption of Employment in Serbia se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Read the recently published background paper on platform work. This background paper, produced by within the project “The platform revolution: shaping the future of work in the EU and Western Balkans” provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving landscape of platform work in Serbia. It explores the rapid growth of digital labor platforms, mapping the types, prevalence, and demographic characteristics of platform workers across the country.

All the background papers created as part of the Platform Revolution project can be accessed here.

Članak Mapping platform work in Serbia se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

The Republic of Serbia was selected as the primary case study due to its size, significance, and the potential impact of its labor mobility on the EU. Additionally, a comparative approach by examining Montenegro, the closest to EU membership, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, known for its high labor mobility, was taken. By conducting research efforts, in-depth, context-specific data was collected through interviews with key stakeholders in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro.

Supported in part by a grant from Open Society Institute – Sofia Foundation (OSIS) with the support of Open Society Foundations (OSFs). Responsibility for the contents and views expressed in this publication therein lies entirely with the European Policy Centre – CEP and the Clingendael and in no way can be construed as reflecting the official position of OSIS, OSFs or any affiliated entities.

Članak Labour Migration and EU Enlargement: Reconciling Dutch and Western Balkan Priorities se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

The New Growth Plan (NGP) for the Western Balkans marks a significant departure from the existing Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA). While the latter lacks reform-related conditionalities, the NGP’s funding will hinge upon the successful implementation of fundamental and socioeconomic reforms. By gradually providing increased financial benefits ahead of accession (amounting to roughly €6 billion, comprising €2 billion in grants and €4 billion in favourable loans), the initiative seeks to unlock the political will for reforms to take place and to facilitate socioeconomic convergence.

According to the European Commission, the region’s convergence stands at approximately 35% of the EU average. Given the magnitude of this disparity, the pertinent question arises: Will the NGP prove sufficient to address the pressing socioeconomic gap and contribute to catching up with the EU average?

Answering this question entails examining multiple facets. Thus, this analysis first identifies key socioeconomic trends and gaps to be addressed and then tests the two claims made by the Commission regarding the effects of the NGP. The first claim is that the financial assistance through NGP and IPA III combined will provide the WB with “roughly the same aid intensity per inhabitant as cohesion policy does on average in the EU.” The second claim is that the NGP “has the potential to double the size of the WB economies within the next 10 years.”

Based on the analysed socioeconomic indicators and the evaluation of the Commission’s claims, the analysis concludes that the NGP can serve as a solid foundation for stimulating economic growth and expediting EU integration. However, its effect on reducing the socioeconomic gap will remain limited.

Članak The Great Gap se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Additionally, it scrutinises the controversial aspects of EXPO 2027, such as the use of a special law, financial implications, and the future of iconic structures like Hall 1 (Hala 1) within the Belgrade Fair complex. By examining these complexities and potential issues, the paper seeks to shed light on the intricate dynamics of hosting an EXPO exhibition, offering recommendations for an approach that maximises the benefits while addressing the challenges, ultimately contributing to the balanced development of Serbia and its strategic positioning in the Western Balkans and the EU integration process.

This brief was originally produced for CeSPI ETS (Center for International Policy Studies) from Italy. The original brief in English can be found at this link.

Članak Belgrade’s EXPO 2027 shining light and shadows se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Circular migration represents an innovative response to the challenges of demographic decline and population outflow in Serbia. This migration model allows the country to harness the benefits of migration, transfer knowledge and capital from abroad, thus contributing to its economic development.

However, circular migrants face specific challenges due to frequent changes in their place of residence, requiring tailored services and support. Managing circular migration requires careful consideration to meet their needs and create favourable conditions for their return with new skills and experiences, thus strengthening Serbia’s competitive advantages in the global market. Based on these assumptions, this policy brief provides recommendations for enhancing support for circular migrants, thereby contributing to Serbia’s economic and social development. The brief analyses the significance and effectiveness of two key platforms – the eGovernment portal and the Returning Point – in supporting circular migrants and returnees to Serbia. Through a detailed qualitative and quantitative analysis, challenges and potential solutions related to the use of these portals are explored. Additionally, user satisfaction is considered, their specific needs are examined, and potential improvements are proposed

Članak Circular Migration: Does Serbia Have a Solution? se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

Public procurement, as a process through which government agencies acquire goods and services from external sources, represents one of the essential areas in Serbia’s EU accession process, covered by Chapter 5. The importance of this chapter was heightened in 2020 with the introduction of the Revised Enlargement Methodology.

The inclusion of public procurement as an integral component of the Fundamentals cluster was a pivotal development, aligning it with other indispensable domains such as the rule of law, democratic institutions, public administration reforms, economic criteria, and more. Upon entering the EU, Serbian companies will gain the valuable right to participate in every public procurement opportunity across the EU alongside businesses from member states. Therefore, Serbia’s entire public procurement system, post-accession, must be carefully designed as a level-playing field, ensuring equal opportunities for all potential bidders from across the EU.

This proactive preparation will not only facilitate the EU accession process but also equip Serbian companies to access the significantly larger public procurement market within the EU. Additionally, public procurement holds a central position in managing EU Structural Funds because each country independently conducts procurements through these funds. This strategic approach plays a pivotal role in fostering economic growth and enhancing competitiveness during and after the accession process. European Commission, 2020, Enhancing the accession process – A credible EU perspective for the Western Balkans September 2023.

Although the EU’s endeavour aimed to underscore the paramount importance of fulfilling the public procurement benchmarks, it failed to incite substantive changes on the ground. Numerous challenges persist and continue to exert adverse effects on the functioning of the state. The vulnerability of public procurement in Serbia to irregularities stems from several key issues. A limited number of bidders and a substantial proportion of single- bid procurements indicate restricted competition, resulting in higher prices and diminished value for money. Furthermore, prioritising price criteria over striking a balance between price and quality considerations can undermine the overall quality and effectiveness of the acquired goods and services. Another critical concern is the excessive reliance on exemptions, which can potentially lead to reduced competition and transparency. These problems underscore the urgency of addressing challenges within the public procurement system. Ensuring transparency and integrity of public procurement is vital to preclude any misuse or mismanagement of public funds and, in turn, deliver high-quality services that genuinely serve the needs of citizens.

This is particularly important as a well-functioning public procurement system can be a driving force behind an efficient public sector, building trust, and upholding the principles of accountability and fairness. By analysing the lack of competition and excessive use of exemptions within Serbia’s public procurement system, this paper seeks to shed light on critical areas for improvement and pave the way for crucial reforms that will enhance the efficiency and integrity of the public procurement processes in Serbia, benefitting both the government and its citizens alike.

Članak Unveiling Challenges in Serbian Public Procurement se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

This paper examines the impact of the Staged Accession model on the EU’s budget, with a focus on the Western Balkan (WB) countries. It reveals that the total cost of enlargement to the Western Balkans would amount to €35 billion over a single Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) or €5 billion annually. Although this would represent a 7.5-fold increase in expenditures on the EU’s side compared to IPA III, the annual burden on the member states’ GNI would amount to only 0.014% and 0.026%, or, depending on the member state, between €1.6 and €10.8 per capita.

The burden of EU enlargement to the Western Balkans would be even lower in practice if mandatory contributions of new member states are taken into account. After subtracting the full contributions of the WB6, the post-accession costs would amount to around €26 bn, or €3.76 bn on an annual level. Put into the perspective of the €1.8 trillion of combined funds of the MFF and the Next Generation EU, these amounts appear relatively negligible. The gradual accession process also softens the budget impact, as the countries are unlikely to progress from one stage to another or join the EU all at once, allowing the EU more time to prepare its budget for the newcomers. In that context, the original logic of the Staged accession model of gradual financial assistance and incentives is both needed and feasible.

To ensure effective operationalisation, the Template’s original funding progression was adjusted as it did not account for the dynamics of introducing compulsory contributions to the EU budget. The paper, therefore, cross-analyses three different financial variants for distributing funds and determining contributions from the Western Balkan countries at each stage of the accession process. The original Template suggested candidates receive 50% of conventional membership funding in Stage 1, followed by 75% in Stage 2, ending with 100% in Stage 3 when membership is achieved. The revised scheme stipulates that candidates would be able to receive up to 40% of conventional membership funding in Stage 1, followed by funds up to 60% in Stage 2, with standard full funding upon acquiring membership. Considering this adjustment, the paper suggests that the simplest, most straightforward option in terms of implementation would be to pursue Variant A, which prescribes full contributions to the EU budget upon acquiring the membership, as has always been the case.

The more advanced one, and most advantageous for candidates, would be Variant B, which stipulates a gradual increase of required contributions even after attaining membership, leading to full contributions in Stage 4. It effectively balances the urgency of boosting reforms and economic convergence with the need to compensate the candidates for the Stage 3 limitations.

Finally, introducing gradual contributions already during the pre-accession stages, as per Variant C, would be the least favourable one from the Western Balkans’ perspective but could nevertheless be a compromise to convince enlargement sceptics to support the rationale behind the Staged Accession model. Opting in favour of any of these variants would represent a breakthrough in how the EU prioritises enlargement.

Članak On financial and economic implications of the Staged accession model on the EU budget, and on acceding countries’ budgets se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.

This report presents the results of the latest WeBER public perception survey, implemented in the entire Western Balkan region in May 2022. Additionally, the report draws main comparisons with the same survey implemented in 2020, shortly after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, and informs about the main changes in public perceptions regarding administrative service provision in the last two years.

Članak Citizens still steadily in favour of government service provision practices: Third public perception survey in the Western Balkans se pojavljuje prvo na European Policy Centre.